July monsoon wipes out rainfall deficit

Srinagar, Jul 30: Active monsoon conditions have dramatically transformed Jammu and Kashmir’s rainfall scenario, with the Union Territory recording 23 per cent above-normal precipitation in July, effectively wiping out the 32 per cent seasonal rainfall deficit that persisted till the end of May. Speaking to Rising Kashmir, Director Meteorological Department Srinagar, Dr Mukhtar Ahmad said the active monsoon has brought widespread rainfall across the Union Territory, significantly improving the overall precipitation pattern after months of below-normal rainfall. “Till the end of May, J&K was facing a 32 per cent rainfall deficit. However, sustained monsoon activity during July has completely changed the picture, and the Union Territory has now recorded 23 per cent above-normal precipitation during the month,” he said. Despite the overall improvement, Dr Ahmad said rainfall distribution has remained uneven. “Kathua and Kishtwar districts in Jammu division and Shopian and some parts of Budgam in Kashmir Valley continue to record below-normal precipitation, while almost all other districts have received normal to above-normal rainfall,” he said. The MeT Director said the monsoon is expected to remain active over the coming days, with Jammu division likely to receive more intense rainfall than Kashmir Valley. “Rain spells will be more effective over the Jammu region till August 5, and heavy showers at isolated places could trigger landslides, mudslides and shooting stones in vulnerable areas, particularly along hilly roads,” he warned. In contrast, Kashmir Valley is likely to witness only light to moderate showers, with no significant weather activity expected till August 5, he said. Dr Ahmad also expressed confidence that the Amarnath Yatra is expected to continue without any major weather-related disruption, as no severe weather system is presently forecast over the pilgrimage routes. “The weather forecast for the Yatra has improved considerably. At present, there is no significant weather activity likely to affect the pilgrimage,” he said. Highlighting the technological advancements introduced for the annual pilgrimage, Dr Ahmad said the Meteorological Department has installed nine automated weather stations along the twin routes to the holy cave shrine via Pahalgam and Baltal. “We have established nine weather stations along both axes of the Amarnath Yatra. These are supported by Doppler weather radars and high-resolution numerical weather prediction models, enabling us to monitor weather conditions in real time,” he said. According to him, the network provides fresh weather observations every 10 minutes, allowing forecasters to issue timely nowcasts, three-day forecasts and seven-day outlooks specifically for the pilgrimage routes. “We receive updated weather data every 10 minutes, which has significantly enhanced the accuracy of route-specific forecasts and weather advisories,” he said. Dr Ahmad clarified, however, that cloudbursts cannot be predicted with absolute certainty anywhere in the world. “No forecasting tool can predict the exact occurrence of a cloudburst. What modern Doppler radars and high-resolution models can do is identify areas where dense cloud formation and intense rainfall are likely. Such conditions may eventually develop into a cloudburst,” he explained. He said the advanced monitoring systems generally provide 15 to 20 minutes of lead time, enabling authorities to issue warnings and take precautionary measures whenever intense weather develops. “Weather forecasting has always been challenging, particularly in mountainous terrain like the Himalayas. Nevertheless, technological advancements have considerably improved our ability to monitor rapidly evolving weather systems,” he said. Citing a recent example, Dr Ahmad said the department had accurately forecast very heavy rainfall over the Pir Panjal range, allowing authorities to remain prepared before the event unfolded. “Our prediction regarding intense rainfall over the Pir Panjal range proved accurate. Such forecasts demonstrate the significant improvements achieved through enhanced observational infrastructure and advanced forecasting models,” he said.

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